{"id":79501,"date":"2019-02-22T16:25:41","date_gmt":"2019-02-22T21:25:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/who-will-win-at-this-years-oscars-a-preview-and-predictions\/"},"modified":"2019-02-22T16:25:41","modified_gmt":"2019-02-22T21:25:41","slug":"who-will-win-at-this-years-oscars-a-preview-and-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/who-will-win-at-this-years-oscars-a-preview-and-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Will Win at This Year\u2019s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Who Will Win at This Year\u2019s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions<\/b><\/p>\n

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Who will win the 91st annual Oscars?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

To describe this 91st Oscar season as \u201ccataclysmic\u201d might sound hyperbolic, but if you\u2019ve been paying attention you\u2019ll forgive the D-R-A-M-A in that adjective. The year has been chalk full of embarrassing Academy missteps like not properly vetting Kevin Hart as their announced host<\/a>, and the dumb \u201cpopular movie\u201d category they floated and were ridiculed for. <\/p>\n

All year long the current leadership of the Academy has shown a distressing lack of respect for Hollywood artists and a complete lack of understanding about why people even watch the Oscars in the first place (Hint: it isn\u2019t for the late night TV comic hosts, who people can watch any night of the week if they want: It\u2019s for the movies, the celebrity glamour, the tradition, and the funny, endearing, or teary speeches). All of their idiotic announcements (no songs other than Lady Gaga\u2019s to be performed, not all categories to be broadcast live<\/a>, last year\u2019s acting winners not invited to present) have been walked back after public disgust or industry outrage.<\/p>\n

In short we\u2019re going into Oscar night with the assumption that the current leaders literally have no<\/em> idea what they\u2019re doing\u2026<\/p>\n

The damage that the Oscars have done to their own brand this year is substantial but we won\u2019t know if this is \u2018meteor, meet dinosaurs!\u2019 serious until the 91st Annual Academy Awards play out on Sunday night on ABC. Will it be utter chaos or just like any other ceremony\u2026?<\/p>\n

What we do know at this writing!<\/strong>
We have the list of presenters<\/a> which includes the usual assortment of current stars, odd choices, and, weirdly, only one classic movie presence (Barbra Streisand). Off-movie celebrities like Serena Williams and Chef Jose Andres will be introducing each Best Picture nominee, and all the Original Songs will be performed by their original performers or writers with the exception of Black Panther\u2019s \u201cAll the Stars\u201d (no announcement on who is singing it yet) and \u201cThe Place Where Lost Things Go\u201d from Mary Poppins Returns<\/em> which will be sung by Bette Midler<\/a>. Queen will also perform, presumably a medley of their hits, with Adam Lambert in tow. The show will go hostless \u2014 the delightful rumor that Whoopi Goldberg will be the surprise host has been debunked by the ladies<\/a> of The View<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Who might win?<\/strong> We\u2019ll take the categories in the order they were presented at the last ceremony just to have an order though they always switch up the order from year to year. Fair warning: this year is more confusing than usual so take this all with a grain of salt. Ready?<\/p>\n

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Why isn\u2019t Richard E Grant the frontrunner? It\u2019s mystifying!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Mahershala Ali has cleaned up all season for his leading role (Category Fraud alert!) in Green Book<\/em> but is he really all that convincing as a gay<\/a> man<\/a>? We say no, though your mileage may vary. Plus he won just two years ago for a better performance (Moonlight<\/em>) so why is this happening? Why?!
Should Win<\/u>: Richard E Grant wipes the floor with the Supporting Actor competition<\/a> with this fully developed alcoholic streetwise character. \u201cJack Hock, big cock<\/a>\u201d is his introduction and he never stops being hilarious, touching, and unpredictable throughout a great queer film Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em><\/p>\n

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: People love Christian Bale\u2019s chameleonic weight gains and losses so his transformation into Dick Cheney should do the trick. Though with makeup effects this good<\/a> \u2014 they made his neck larger and you\u2019d never know he wasn\u2019t balding \u2014 one wonders why Bale puts himself through so much harmful yo-yoing in his physique for these parts he takes.
Should Win<\/u>: The hard-to-describe Swedish movie Border<\/em> (well worth watching<\/a>) which has some of the best makeup effects you\u2019ll ever see\u2026 and which you won\u2019t be able to unsee, fair warning.<\/p>\n

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What\u2019s your favourite costume in Black Panther? (Besides any of Michael B Jordan\u2019s shirtless looks that is)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST COSTUME DESIGN<\/strong>
Will Win\/Should Win<\/u>: A total nail-biter. It\u2019s either going to be Sandy Powell\u2019s incredible work on the palace tragicomedy The Favourite<\/em>, mixing period silhouettes with ultra modern textiles and techniques and an amazingly rangy color palette (considering the heavy use of blacks and whites) or Ruth E Carter\u2019s futuristic creative work on Black Panther <\/em>imagining a technologically advanced hidden African society. We\u2019re rooting for Black Panther <\/em>primarily because Carter has never won despite incredible work and the very cool Powell (imagine a costume designing version of Tilda Swinton) already has three Oscars, famously starting her third winning speech 9 years ago with a flippant \u201cI already have two of these.\u201d<\/p>\n

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: We suspect this is a tight race between two blockbuster docs, the mountain climbing Free Solo<\/em> and the biography RBG<\/em>. Given RBG\u2019s iconic nature and the current political resistance climate we think RBG<\/em> has the edge to win.
Should Win<\/u>: Abstain as we haven\u2019t yet seen all five.<\/p>\n

BEST SOUND EDITING<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Going out on a limb here to say that this is where First Man<\/em> fans rally for that underappreciated historical drama about the moon landing. But this could just as easily go to the any of the other nominees: Roma, Black Panther, A Quiet Place, <\/em>or Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: First Man<\/em><\/p>\n

BEST SOUND MIXING<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em> probably has this one sewn up, primarily for providing the joy of that soundwall of Queen hits. Queen is a great band but that doesn\u2019t mean we should be throwing statues at a bad movie about them!<\/a>
Should Win<\/u>: Roma<\/em> and First Man<\/em> both have incredible soundscapes and if they want to honor a music drama for the win, A Star is Born<\/em>\u2018s mix is a lot more challenging and compelling than reliving Queen\u2019s greatest hits collection.<\/p>\n

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Tapestries! Flowers! Paintings! There\u2019s so much to gawk at in The Favourite<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: The Favourite<\/em>. Oscar voters love royalty porn and palaces, so why not? The film is a work of art. Those tapestries alone!
Should Win<\/u>: The Favourite<\/em> but we wouldn\u2019t be mad if Roma<\/em>\u2018s immersive take on Mexico City in 1970 or Black Panther<\/em>\u2018s imaginative Wakanda took it, instead.<\/p>\n

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Mexico\u2019s Roma<\/em>, hands down, though Poland\u2019s Cold War<\/em> would have easily won in a non Netflix\/Roma<\/em> dominant year.
Should Win<\/u>: Japan\u2019s Shoplifters<\/em>. Rent it<\/a>. You\u2019ll weep. But really this is a great category this year<\/a>. Lebanon\u2019s Capernaum<\/em> is also riveting<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Tough call<\/a> as there hasn\u2019t been a clear frontrunner as there too often is in each and every acting race. It\u2019s either going to be Regina King\u2019s warmth and fortitude as a distraught mother in If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em> or Rachel Weisz\u2019s lacerating quips and heartbreak in The Favourite<\/em>.
Should Win<\/u>: We\u2019re rooting for Regina since Rachel has a leading role (Category Fraud alert!) but that said, Rachel is fan-tas-tic in The Favourite <\/em><\/p>\n

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Weekends<\/em> for a wild guess, though Pixar\u2019s Bao<\/em> is the most widely seen.
Should Win<\/u>: Abstain. Haven\u2019t yet seen them all.<\/p>\n

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: Isle of Dogs<\/em> and Spider-Verse<\/em> are both grand imaginative entertainments.<\/p>\n

\n
I Captain America. F*** you, Thanos. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: First Man<\/em>. Lately the winner in this category has been the film with the lowest gross (in a category that regularly nominated blockbusters). Funny, right? And that moon landing is just sublime filmmaking.
Should Win<\/u>: Avengers: Infinity War<\/em>. But for whatever reason superhero movies almost never win<\/a>. Spider-Man 2<\/em> (2004) is literally the only superhero film that\u2019s ever won this Oscar (competitively speaking \u2013 Superman<\/em> got a special Oscar in 1978)<\/p>\n

BEST FILM EDITING<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: This category is sometimes an Oscar bellwether as to what will win Best Picture. If it goes to Green Book<\/em>, expect that to take the prize. If it goes to Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em> or Vice<\/em>, there may be other factors at work like the challenge of turning a troubled production into a blockbuster or \u201cMost\u201d Editing respectively. We\u2019re guessing Vice\u00a0<\/em>but\u00a0it\u2019ll\u00a0be\u00a0close\u00a0either\u00a0way.
Should Win<\/u>: Either of the two that look like they have no shot at it: the confrontational BlacKkKlansman<\/em> with it crosscut conversations with classic cinema, or The Favourite<\/em>, with its merciless comic precision and its soulful and strange dissolves.<\/p>\n

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: We have a suspicion that Period. End of Sentence<\/a><\/em>, currently streaming on Netflix, which is about an upstart factory producing tampons for women<\/a> in rural India might take it. It\u2019s the rare non-depressing Doc short nominee.
Should Win<\/u>: \u2026but we\u2019re rooting for End Game<\/em>, also streaming on Netflix<\/a>. This emotionally charged short is about end-of-life care and new ways of looking at and making peace with death. It\u2019s from two-time Oscar winning gay<\/a> documentarian Rob Epstein (of The Times of Harvey Milk<\/em>, Common Threads: Stories from the Quilt,\u00a0<\/em>and\u00a0The\u00a0Celluloid\u00a0Closet<\/em> fame)<\/p>\n

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The Favourite<\/em> isn\u2019t the only lesbian<\/a> drama nominated this year. The short film Marguerite<\/em> is a moving picture of love lost but never forgotten.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: We\u2019re guessing either Detainment\u00a0<\/em>or\u00a0Skin<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: Marguerite<\/em>, the lone live<\/a>-action short nominee this year that is not a traumatically violent story involving little boys<\/a> (weird trend alert!). It\u2019s a drama about an aging woman<\/a> who realizes her nurse is a lesbian<\/a>, which then prompts her to remember her own lost love.<\/p>\n

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: BlacKkKlansman<\/em> because it\u2019s a chance to finally give Spike Lee a competitive Oscar and the film and screenplay are damn good, too.
Should Win<\/u>: Can You Ever Forgive Me? <\/em>a screenplay from the great writer Nicole Holofcener (who usually directs her own screenplays \u2013 but not this time), and Tony winner Jeff Whitty (of Avenue Q<\/em> fame).<\/p>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Another tough call<\/a>. If Green Book<\/em> wins this, we expect it to take Best Picture, too. And that\u2019s what we\u2019re currently thinking.
Should Win<\/u>: The Favourite<\/em><\/p>\n

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Roma<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: Cold War<\/em>,\u00a0that\u00a0other\u00a0gloriously shot black\u00a0&\u00a0white\u00a0foreign movie in the mix this year.<\/p>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Black Panther<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: It\u2019s a strong category this year since Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em>, and BlacKkKlansman <\/em>would also make fine winners. In fact both Black Panther<\/em> and BlacKkKlansman<\/em> already won Grammys (in separate categories) recently. <\/p>\n

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I just wanted to take another look at these two\u2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SONG<\/strong>
Will \/ Should Win<\/u>: If Lady Gaga doesn\u2019t take this for \u201cShallow\u201d there will be (gay<\/a>) riots. You may recall that I am obsessed with this movie<\/a> and remain unashamedly in its corner. Early prediction: the performance of \u201cShallow\u201d will be the highlight of the ceremony, unless someone like Glenn Close gives a pitch perfect quotable speech.<\/p>\n

BEST DIRECTOR<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n for his personal and artistic triumph, Roma.<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: Tough call<\/a> but we\u2019d probably vote for Spike Lee and BlacKkKlansman<\/em>, since Cuar\u00f3n already has a directing Oscar and Lee famously doesn\u2019t. Yorgos Lanthimos, the iconoclastic director behind The Favourite <\/em>(and The Lobster<\/em> and Dogtooth<\/em> and Killing of a Sacred Deer<\/em>) would also be a sound choice.<\/p>\n

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Queen will perform at the 91st Academy Awards, with Adam Lambert doing the Freddie Mercury duties<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST ACTOR<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Rami Malek has this wrapped up. During your Oscar party you should have your guests lipsync to Queen hits during commercial break. Whoever does the best job should get a toy Oscar as a party favor because apparently spirited lipsynching is enough to win an Oscar now? [sigh]
Should Win<\/u>: Bradley Cooper hands down. That his raw soulful lived in performance as a troubled rock star falling in love isn\u2019t picking up trophies is bewildering. Plus he does his own singing and songwriting. Rami Malek could never.<\/p>\n

BEST ACTRESS<\/strong>
Will Win\/Should Win<\/u>: Glenn Close in The Wife<\/em>. Yes, there\u2019s a chance that Olivia Colman upsets Close\u2019s long-denied coronation with her hilarious and moving work as Queen Anne in The Favourite <\/em>but we think Hollywood will realize it\u2019s time to honor Close\u2019s career with the trophy she\u2019s been long denied. This is her seventh nomination and it\u2019s not<\/em> a pity nomination: she\u2019s spectacular in the movie and I\u2019m proud to have been quoted on one of the earliest posters, saying so<\/a>. She\u2019s now the most nominated actress of all time to have never won. At least until Sunday.<\/p>\n

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Statistically ROMA has a great shot at the win, but Oscar has long preferred men\u2019s stories (and never rewarded a foreign film as \u201cBest Picture\u201d) so GREEN BOOK could win.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

BEST PICTURE<\/strong>
Will Win<\/u>: Who knows? Our crystal balls are so cloudy. The precursor awards have been as tumultuous as the Academy\u2019s constant walked back press releases about their show. Roma<\/em> won the Directors Guild Award, Black Panther <\/em>took the Screen Actors Guild Award, Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em> and Green Book<\/em> owned the Globes, Roma<\/em> nabbed the Critics Choice, Green Book<\/em> won the Producers Guild Award, and then Roma <\/em>and The Favourite<\/em> cleaned up at BAFTA. Plus the Oscars use a \u201cpreferential\u201d ballot for Best Picture (which they don\u2019t use on the other categories) which means you can win the top prize even if you didn\u2019t get the most #1 votes (provided you have a lot <\/em>of #2 and #3 votes), as long as another film doesn\u2019t win outright with too many #1 votes on the first count to have to go down the list \u2014 look, it\u2019s complicated! (They basically have to rank the nominees.)<\/p>\n

In the end we think it\u2019s going to either Roma<\/em> or Green Book<\/em>, which both appear to be beloved in Hollywood and will surely get a lot of #1 through #3 votes, but Black Panther<\/em> wouldn\u2019t be surprising if no film dominates on first count because nobody hates Black Panther<\/em>. Hesistant prediction: Green Book.<\/em>
Should Win<\/u>: The Favourite.<\/em> <\/p>\n

\n
Rachel Weisz demonstrating how we\u2019ll probably be feeling on Oscar night.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

HOW DUMB WILL THESE PREDICTIONS LOOK ON SUNDAY NIGHT?<\/strong>
We\u2019ve predicted a \u2018spread the wealth\u2019 kind of night with all the Best Picture nominees winning at least one Oscar like so: Roma<\/em> and Green <\/em>Book (3 each), Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice<\/em>, and Black Panther<\/em> (2 each), and The Favourite, A Star is Born<\/em>, and BlacKkKlansman<\/em> (1 each). The wild cards are definitely Roma <\/em>and The Favourite.<\/em>\u00a0They\u00a0each\u00a0have\u00a0ten\u00a0nominations<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0easy\u00a0to\u00a0see\u00a0<\/em>scenarios wherein they pick up a lot more than we\u2019ve predicted here, maybe as high as 5 Oscars each!<\/p>\n

HAPPY OSCAR WATCHING, ALL!<\/p>\n

The post Who Will Win at This Year\u2019s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions<\/a> appeared first on Towleroad Gay News<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n<\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a>\n<\/div>\n

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Who Will Win at This Year’s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n