{"id":65268,"date":"2018-03-02T10:26:22","date_gmt":"2018-03-02T15:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/our-2018-oscar-predictions-three-billboards-shape-of-water-call-me-by-your-name-and-more\/"},"modified":"2018-03-02T10:26:22","modified_gmt":"2018-03-02T15:26:22","slug":"our-2018-oscar-predictions-three-billboards-shape-of-water-call-me-by-your-name-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/our-2018-oscar-predictions-three-billboards-shape-of-water-call-me-by-your-name-and-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Our 2018 Oscar Predictions: \u2018Three Billboards\u2019, \u2018Shape of Water\u2019, \u2018Call Me By Your Name\u2019 and More"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our 2018 Oscar Predictions: \u2018Three Billboards\u2019, \u2018Shape of Water\u2019, \u2018Call Me By Your Name\u2019 and More<\/b>
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One of these three movies will be named Best Picture: Three Billboards, Get Out, and The Shape of Water<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

With the 90th Academy Awards coming this Sunday, another tradition must precede it:\u00a0 <\/span>predicting the Oscar winners! Whether you follow the race all year long or are just now tuning in (I have a friend trying to cram in six of the nominees this weekend, poor thing!) it ends Sunday night. Hopefully without a snafu on the epic scale of last year\u2019s Envelope Gate when La La Land<\/em> was read out as Best Picture when Moonlight<\/em> had actually won. <\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"I am sad to share that there\u2019s a possibility that all of the best<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cBest<\/em> Pictures\u201d (Get Out, Lady Bird, <\/em>and Call Me By Your Name<\/em>) go home empty-handed but what else is new? Not to be pessimistic but Oscar night is often a come down from the multiple-winners joy of nomination morning. That\u2019s why you should always attend or throw a fun Oscar party and try not to take it too seriously. Enjoy the gowns and the speeches and celebrate every film you love.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s call<\/a> each individual Oscar race\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Disclaimer: If you use this for the Oscar pool we apologize in advance because the chance of 100% correct guesswork is about as likely as falling in love with a fish-man<\/a> who you\u2019ll have to rescue from a top-secret government facility.<\/p>\n

Lets work our way up from the tiniest categories to the big one.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dear Basketball<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Shorts Categories<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Even if you\u2019ve watch all 15 of these shorts\u2014 easier to do now that there\u2019s always a touring theatrical release and some are available online \u2014 it can be hard to guess winners. So let\u2019s toss a coin and say it\u2019ll be Heroin(e)<\/em> about the opiod epidemic for Documentary, DeKalb Elementary<\/em> about a gunman entering a school for Live-Action, and Kobe Bryant\u2019s poetic Dear Basketball<\/em> for Animated\u2026 knowing full well that we could be wrong all all three counts. If we are, let\u2019s say its the interracial love story of Edith+Eddie<\/em>, the deaf childhood drama Silent Child<\/em>, and the BAFTA-winning Revolting Rhymes<\/em> as spoilers.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dunkirk<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Dunkirk<\/em> \u2026 or maybe Baby Driver<\/em>. Though there are two sound categories you wouldn\u2019t know it given Oscar\u2019s tendency to nominated and reward the same films in both. This year the World War II land \/ air \/ sea epic\u00a0Dunkirk<\/em> looks most likely for both prizes but don\u2019t be surprised if Baby Driver<\/em> or Blade Runner 2049<\/em> steals one of them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated:\u00a0 <\/span>Star Wars: The Last Jedi<\/em> and The Shape of Water<\/em><\/p>\n

Original Score<\/strong>
\nWill Win: This one\u2019s easy. Alexandre Desplat, Hollywood\u2019s in-demand and tireless composer, will win again for The Shape of Water.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: Jonny Greenwood\u2019s luxurious\u00a0Phantom Thread<\/em> music<\/p>\n

Also nominated: Dunkirk, Star Wars: The Last Jedi,<\/em> and Three Billboards<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Original Song<\/strong>
\nWill Win: It\u2019s likely a dead heat between The Greatest Showman<\/em>\u2019s \u201cThis is Me\u201d and Coco<\/em>\u2019s moving \u201cRemember Me\u201d. But I think Pasek & Paul will take their second consecutive Oscar for \u201cThis Is Me\u201d. They won last year for \u201cCity of Stars\u201d from La La Land<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: \u201cThis Is Me\u201d \u2013 sorry not sorry. Most cheesy inspirational anthems wish they were this much of an ear worm.<\/p>\n

Also nominated: \u201cMystery of Love\u201d by Sufjan Stevens (\"\u2665\") from Call Me By Your Name<\/em>, \u201cMighty River\u201d by Mary J Blige for Mudbound,<\/em> and \u201cStand For Something\u201d from Marshall<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A Fantastic Woman\u2019s Daniela Vega will present at the Oscars. The first trans<\/a> person to do so<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Foreign Film<\/strong>
\nWill Win: This might be the only true five-way race of Oscar night as no clear frontrunner has emerged. The Hungarian nominee On Body and Soul<\/em> (currently streaming on Netflix) is eerily memorable and both funny and sad, The Swedish nominee and art-world satire\u00a0The Square<\/em> was the biggest international hit among the nominees and also has the cachet of being the Cannes Palme d\u2019Or winner. Lebanon\u2019s first nomination The Insult<\/em> has its fans and is a genuine crowd-pleaser.\u00a0 <\/span>If voters are feeling more fearless they could embrace the Russian nominee Loveless<\/em>. It\u2019s a severe movie but it\u2019s deeply haunting and we know the Academy likes the director because this is his second nomination in this category (after Leviathan<\/em>). And finally a lot of people love Chile\u2019s trans<\/a> drama A Fantastic Woman<\/em>.\u00a0 In the absence of a clear frontrunner, I\u2019m betting they\u2019ll default to the earliest and thus most familiar sensation,\u00a0The Square<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: Meanwhile we\u2019ll just be over here fuming that the rightful winner, France\u2019s epic sexy artful provocative and enraging AIDS drama BPM<\/em> didn\u2019t even make their finals!<\/p>\n

Make Up and Hair<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Darkest Hour<\/em>. Sometimes the Academy likes to pretend that actors who \u201ctransform\u201d do so solely with their acting gift. When Charlize Theron won for Monster<\/em> (2003) they didn\u2019t even nominated that genius complex makeup work which transformed the legendary beauty into a serial killer Aileen Wournos . But that probably won\u2019t be the case this year since the prosthetic work to make Gary Oldman, whose still in good shape, look like jowly obese Winston Churchill has gotten a lot of press. And though hair is always a forgotten portion of this prize, Darkest Hour also has the best wigs, Kristin Scott Thomas is fierce with\u00a0 white hair, honey.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: Wonder<\/em> and Victoria and Abdul<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Blade Runner 2049 will take home something from its 5 nominations<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Visual Effects<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Blade Runner 2049<\/em> has five tech nominations and looks likely to win somewhere.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: And now a moment of silence for The Planet of the Apes<\/em> franchise which keeps losing this category despite its starting effects work.<\/p>\n

Also nominated:\u00a0 <\/span>Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong Skull Island<\/em>, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi<\/em><\/p>\n

Film Editing<\/strong>
\nWill Win: This prize is often paired with the Best Picture\u00a0 winner but I don\u2019t think that will be the case this year. When they don\u2019t pair it with BP it usually goes to a technical marvel so Dunkirk<\/em>\u00a0with its three concurrent time frames gimmick will probably win barring a surprise upset from Shape of Water<\/em> (if Shape<\/em> wins here, I\u2019d be very surprised to see it lose Best Picture).<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: Baby Driver\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: I Tonya<\/em> and Three Billboards <\/em><\/p>\n

Production Design<\/strong>
\nWill \/ Should Win: I suppose Blade Runner 2049<\/em> could win this if they were truly blown away. It is the most effortful nominee. But my suspicion is this is the easiest win outside of Original Score for The Shape of Water<\/em> given the memorably green color scheme and all those cool sets including government testing facilities, old movie theaters, and spacious quirky apartments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: the gaudy Disney castle of Beauty and the Beast<\/em>, the subterranean war rooms and bunkers of Darkest Hour<\/em>, and the various vessels of Dunkirk<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Phantom Thread<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Costume Design<\/strong>
\nWill Win \/ Should Win: Given the subject matter of the film, and the weakness of this category overall this year (there aren\u2019t a lot of iconic looks among these nominees) Phantom Thread<\/em> takes this in a walk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water<\/em>, and Victoria and Abdul<\/em><\/p>\n

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: The Disaster Artist, Logan<\/em>, and Molly\u2019s Game<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Original Screenplay<\/strong>
\nWill Win: A real nail-biter this year with three options that all seem like viable winners. This would be a perfect place to honor Greta Gerwig\u2019s Lady Bird<\/em> success. This would be a perfect place to honor Jordan Peele\u2019s zeitgeist-capturing Get Out<\/em>. This would be a likely place to honor Martin McDonagh\u2019s provocative Three Billboards<\/em> if its headed for a Best Picture win. I honestly go back and forth every hour on who might win but I\u2019m going to predict Get Out<\/em> with Three Billboards<\/em> as a highly likely spoiler.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: Wins for either Get Out<\/em> or Lady Bird<\/em> would be thrilling.<\/p>\n

Also Nominated: The Shape of Water<\/em> and The Big Sick<\/em><\/p>\n

Supporting Actress<\/strong>
\nWill Win: This is all locked up for Allison Janney\u2019s fun crowd-pleasing caricature of a monster mom in I Tonya.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: But why has Janney been steam-rolling at award shows when Emmy and Tony winner Laurie Metcalf is right there being a total and utter genius in three dimensions as Lady Bird<\/em>\u2019s tense exhausted sarcastic mother?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Also nominated: Lesley Manville as the icy sister in Phantom Thread, Octavia Spencer as the trusted coworker friend in The Shape of Water, and Mary J Blige as a weary wary mother in Mudbound<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Supporting Actor<\/strong>
\nWill Win: All locked up for Sam Rockwell which is a bit confusing since his racist cop in Three Billboards<\/em> has taken most of the brunt of the backlash against that film.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: We\u2019ll be over here shedding a tear for Willem Dafoe\u2019s brilliant work as a kindly but not push-overable motel manager in The Florida Project.<\/em><\/p>\n

Also nominated: Richard Jenkins as a gay<\/a> ad man<\/a> in The Shape of Water<\/em>, Woody Harrelson as a cancer-striken police chief in Three Billboards<\/em>, and Christopher Plummer as the richest man<\/a> in the world in All the Money in the World.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sam and Frances are both heading for Oscars for Three Billboards<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Lead Actress<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Frances McDormand\u2019s fire and fury and potty-mouth in Three Billboards<\/em>\u00a0will give her a second Oscar bookend. She won 22 years ago for her much kinder classic turn in Fargo<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: McDormand is fierce af but I\u2019m partial to Saoirse Ronan who is perfect in\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>. Saoirse\u2019s problem is that she makes it look effortless.<\/p>\n

Also nominated: Margot Robbie as Olympian Tonya Harding in\u00a0I Tonya<\/em>, Sally Hawkins as a mute cleaning woman<\/a> in The Shape of Water<\/em>, and mandatory-nominee -whenever-she-makes-a-movie Meryl Streep in The Post<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Lead Actor<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Gary Oldman\u2019s blustery Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour<\/em>\u00a0will earn him one of those \u2018Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman\u2019 lifetime achievement super ham awards.
<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: But everyone knows the winner should be young Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name<\/em>. Maybe it\u2019s easy to pretend to be in love with Armie Hammer (just a guess) but Timoth\u00e9e is also multilingual, plays piano, and is just revelatory in body language and in closeups.
<\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: Daniel Day Lewis\u2019s egotistical fashion designer in Phantom Thread<\/em>, Daniel Kaluuya\u2019s hypnotized boyfriend in Get Out<\/em>, and Denzel Washington as an aging civil rights lawyer in Roman J Israel Esq<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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Director<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Everyone at the televised precursor awards seems to have happily jumped onboard the narrative that it\u2019s Guillermo del Toro\u2019s time. The monster-loving Mexican director behind The Shape of Water<\/em> will win for this career long individuality and creativity.
<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Win: Tough call<\/a> but maybe Jordan Peele who somehow balanced sociological satire with horror comedy with interracial drama and spoke to just about everyone with the zeitgeist smash Get Out<\/em>.
<\/span><\/p>\n

Also nominated: Greta Gerwig for\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>, Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread<\/em>, and Chris Nolan for Dunkirk<\/em>. This is a really strong category, guys<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Picture<\/strong>
\nWill Win: The end goal for all those Oscar-seeking motion pictures. The preferential ballot, which is only used for this category and means that voters have to rank the 9 nominees<\/a> rather than pick one winner, has delivered us semi-surprises lately like little Moonlight<\/em> beating juggernaut La La Land<\/em> and, to a less surprising degree, Spotlight<\/em> beating nomination behemoth The Revenant<\/em>. <\/span><\/p>\n

Going into the voting last week Three Billboards<\/em> had won a lot of Best Picture prizes including at BAFTA (the British Oscar equivalent) and the Globes with Shape of Water<\/em> taking the Producers and Directors Guild awards. Some pundits are predicting that the brilliant Get Out<\/em> surprises, sneaking up in between them because it won\u2019t likely be last on anyone\u2019s ballot, but that feels like wishful thinking to me. My prediction is Three Billboards<\/em> (which the acting branch, the largest in the Academy, obviously loves) though a win for The Shape of Water<\/em> would not be even 1% as surprising as Envelope Gate last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Have I told you how much i love Lady Bird?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Should Win: Get Out<\/em> and Lady Bird<\/em> both strike me as movies that will still be loved 20 years from now so one of them should absolutely win. Also they are my personal favorites<\/a>. If only there could be a tie!
<\/span><\/p>\n

Also Nominated: Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour<\/em>, and The Post<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS \/ FAVORITES ?<\/p>\n

The post Our 2018 Oscar Predictions: \u2018Three Billboards\u2019, \u2018Shape of Water\u2019, \u2018Call Me By Your Name\u2019 and More<\/a> appeared first on Towleroad<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n<\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a>\n<\/div>\n

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Our 2018 Oscar Predictions: ‘Three Billboards’, ‘Shape of Water’, ‘Call Me By Your Name’ and More<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Adapted Screenplay<\/strong>
\nWill Win: This category has given me such anxiety. All signs point to a win for Call Me By Your Name<\/em> and, thus, the iconic four time nominee James Ivory, one of the greatest directors who ever lived and, incidentally, one of my personal queer heroes<\/a>. But I fear and am thus predicting an upset from Mudbound<\/em> which has a lot of hardcore fans who will be looking for a way to honor it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Documentary Feature<\/strong>
\nWill Win: Tough call<\/a>. Last Man in Aleppo<\/em> has some goodwill for it but a short on this same topic called White Helmets<\/em> won just last year.\u00a0Abacus<\/em> is probably too low profile to win. Strong Island<\/em>, which gave us our first openly trans<\/a> Oscar nominee in director Yance Ford, would make for a historic win but seems like a stretch. I\u2019m guessing that the race is between the rural France travel picture\u00a0Faces Places<\/em> and the sports scandal doc\u00a0Icarus<\/em>. Faces Places<\/em> is much more light and whimsical than voters are usually willing to go in this category (where they often preference subject matter over execution) but it would give them a chance to honor French New Wave icon Agn\u00e8s Varda with a competitive Oscar to go with the Honorary statue she received last year. We know Hollywood loves her \u2014 did you see her dancing with Angelina Jolie last year?<\/a> \u2014 but I\u2019m guessing that the anti-doping doc Icarus<\/em> might have the edge since it\u2019s both been in and made the news.<\/span><\/p>\n