Brexit Briefing: Steve Baker Rises<\/b>
\nThe Brexit story which should have dominated this week was the European Union publishing its guidelines for negotiations around the post-March 2019 transition period. Instead, thanks to a top scoop by BuzzFeed News (all credit to them), it was about the economic impact of Brexit on the UK.<\/p>\n
The document, titled \u2018EU Exit Analysis \u2013 Cross Whitehall Briefing\u201d and dated January 2018, analysed three potential outcomes of the Brexit negotiations: joining the European Economic Area; a comprehensive free trade deal; and \u2018no deal\u2019. Each analysis predicted stunted growth compared to the UK staying in the EU.<\/p>\n
As soon as it was published a round of smearing, dismissing and ignoring began by Brexiteers.<\/p>\n
The highlight was Steve Baker, minister in the Department for Exiting the EU which produced the document, telling MPs to pay no heed to the draft, incomplete analysis because forecasts are \u201calways wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n
He then proceeded to claim that the forecasts predicted growth anyway.<\/p>\n
A few minutes after saying forecasts are always wrong.<\/p>\n
This shall hence forth be known as The Baker Doctrine.<\/p>\n
One of the key questions about the whole debacle was who ordered civil servants to carry out a piece of work analysing Brexit outcomes which aren\u2019t Government policy.<\/p>\n
Downing Street wouldn\u2019t 100% confirm it was a Minister who ordered the work, saying instead that civil servants were \u201cempowered\u201d to carry out such analysis.<\/p>\n
The Brexiteer sense that the supposedly politically-neutral civil service has been compromised was articulated by Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Commons on Thursday, when he asked Baker if he had heard the rumour \u201cthat officials in the Treasury have deliberately developed a model to show that all options other than staying in the customs union are bad, and that officials intend to use the model to influence policy?\u201d<\/p>\n
Baker confirmed he had heard the rumour, but while he considered it \u201cimplausible\u201d, he did not outright reject it.<\/p>\n
Back to the document itself, and despite Theresa May telling reporters that making the draft report public would be wrong, she didn\u2019t order her MPs to vote down a Labour motion to have it handed over to MPs.<\/p>\n
Talk about being in Government but not in power.<\/p>\n
For one Tory minister, it was all too much. Justice Minister Phillip Lee took to Twitter to argue it was time for the Government\u2019s Brexit plan to be led by \u201cevidence, not dogma\u201d. Airing that view in public earned him a dressing by the Chief Whip, although Lee has not deleted the tweets.<\/p>\n
In contrast, when Jacob Rees-Mogg and other hardline-Brexit Tories were invited in by Chief Whip Julian Smith on Tuesday to discuss their criticisms of the Government\u2019s apparently softening position on the implementation phase, they were given home-made Victoria Sponge.<\/p>\n
That really is having your cake and eating it too.<\/p>\n
2) In A Shock To No One, The EU Wants Something Different To The UK From The Implementation Period<\/p>\n
Over in Brussels, and on Monday EU negotiators agreed the bloc\u2019s demands for the post-Brexit transition period.<\/p>\n
Two differences from the UK\u2019s position leapt out of the document immediately.<\/p>\n
One is that the EU wants the UK to abide by all new laws passed by Brussels during the transition period, even though Britain will have no say in those directives. David Davis made it clear in a speech on Friday he wanted there to be a way of \u201cresolving concerns\u201d over laws which affect the UK during the two-year period \u2013 although many will want Britain to ignore them completely.<\/p>\n
The other difference is the EU wants everything agreed in the first phase of talks to be \u201ctranslated faithfully in legal terms as quickly as possible.\u201d This demand would lock down the financial agreement, citizens\u2019 rights and Irish border issue before the final trade deal is known, and goes against the long-running Brussels edict of nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.<\/p>\n
Putting the phase one agreement in a legally binding form would further rile up Tory backbenchers who worry the EU is calling all the shots in this negotiation, meaning this could prove another sticking point for the talks.<\/p>\n
3)\u00a0Freedom Of Movement, But Not As We Know It<\/p>\n
One area that has particularly wound up the right of the Tories is that freedom of movement will continue during the two-year implementation period.<\/p>\n
During a visit to China, Theresa May tried \u2013 yet again \u2013 to appease that wing of her party, saying new EU migrants coming to the UK after March 2019 should not expect to be granted full citizens\u2019 rights.<\/p>\n
The Prime Minister said those who arrived after Brexit would have to be treated differently from their predecessors \u201cbecause they will be coming to a UK that they know will be outside the EU\u201d.<\/p>\n
May has already stressed that three million European nationals currently living in the country will be\u00a0guaranteed voting and residency rights\u00a0once Britain formally quits the 28-nation bloc.<\/p>\n
But critics – including former Labour minister Lord Adonis – dubbed the move a \u201cbig step back for civilised European conduct\u201d, asking what the government will do if the EU starts \u201cmistreating\u201d British citizens.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Some campaigners have claimed that up to two million migrants could head to the UK during the two-year transition period before the country formally severs its existing ties with the EU.<\/p>\n
EU chief negotiator\u00a0Michel Barnier\u00a0last week sparked Tory claims that he wanted to unpick parts of a deal agreed with May late last year.<\/p>\n
Instead of ending EU citizens\u2019 rights to vote or reside in Britain after the spring of next year, Brussels now says it wants full protections to be extended to the end of 2020, its own deadline for the end of the transition period.<\/p>\n
Asked if the EU had \u201ctorn up\u201d the deal on citizens\u2019 rights she thought she had agreed in December, May replied: \u201cNo.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was right that we have made an agreement that ensured they [new EU migrants] could continue their life in the way they had wanted to,\u201d she told reporters.<\/p>\n
People will be free to work and live<\/a> in the UK during the two-year transition period after 2019, but they will be required to join a registration scheme.<\/p>\n However, the PM felt the \u201cprinciple\u201d of differential treatment between those who arrived before and after Brexit was worth maintaining.<\/p>\n 4) Who Says The Germans Don\u2019t Have A Sense Of Humour?<\/p>\n The laughter is falling flat in the UK though, with ants-in-yer-pants syndrome spreading through the Government. One Minister told me this week May really needs to make a decision on what Brexit deal she actually wants \u2013 and soon. \u201cIt\u2019s not going to get easier with time,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n Don\u2019t Get Angry, Get Blogging\u2026<\/p>\n At HuffPost we love a good blog, and here are the finest Brexit-penned entries from this week. Have a read, and if any of them provoke an urge in you to speak your brain, send a blog to\u00a0ukblogteam@huffingtonpost.com<\/a>\u00a0and you could find yourself in this very newsletter.<\/p>\n Maike Bohn and Axel Antoni\u00a0on how Theresa May is \u201cadding to the woes\u201d of EU citizens in the UK<\/p>\n Anand Menon and Alan Wager\u00a0on how, 18 months on, the referendum is still increasingly dividing the nation<\/p>\n Keith Taylor MEP\u00a0on why the idea of a green Brexit is a \u2019comic book fantasy;<\/p>\n George Kassimeris\u00a0on the \u2018political elegance\u2019 of Emmanuel Macron<\/p>\n Here at HuffPost UK we are striving to make sure we report on the issues you care about – and Brexit is no different. That\u2019s why\u00a0we\u2019ve created a special Facebook group for you to take part in.\u00a0We\u2019ll use the group to get discussions going, answer your questions and make sure you\u2019re getting the best Brexit news from HuffPost UK and beyond. Membership is limited to 500 people, and you\u2019ll need to answer a few simple questions when you sign up.\u00a0Join the group by clicking here. Brexit Briefing: Steve Baker Rises The Brexit story which should have dominated this week was the European Union publishing its guidelines for negotiations around the post-March 2019 transition period. Instead, thanks to a top scoop by BuzzFeed News (all credit to them), it was about the economic impact of Brexit on the UK. The document, … Continue reading Brexit Briefing: Steve Baker Rises<\/span>
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\nwww.huffingtonpost.co.uk\/entry\/brexit-briefing-steve-baker_uk_5a734e30e4b06ee97af086a1<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"