{"id":50626,"date":"2017-02-25T12:20:32","date_gmt":"2017-02-25T17:20:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/hollywoods-high-holy-night-is-here-our-predictions-for-the-2017-oscars\/"},"modified":"2017-02-25T12:20:32","modified_gmt":"2017-02-25T17:20:32","slug":"hollywoods-high-holy-night-is-here-our-predictions-for-the-2017-oscars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/hollywoods-high-holy-night-is-here-our-predictions-for-the-2017-oscars\/","title":{"rendered":"Hollywood\u2019s High Holy Night is Here: Our Predictions for the 2017 Oscars"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hollywood\u2019s High Holy Night is Here: Our Predictions for the 2017 Oscars<\/b><\/p>\n

\"Oscar<\/p>\n

The 89th Annual Academy Awards are this Sunday. Who are you rooting for?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Happy Oscar Weekend, all! Hollywood\u2019s High Holy Night arrives this Sunday night on ABC. The big question on everyone\u2019s mind is surely \u201cHow political will the acceptance speeches get?\u201d and the answer is an indisputable \u201cVery!\u201d<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s move on to another question: How many Oscars will La La Land<\/em> win? You don\u2019t need any psychic gift to know that the answer is surely \u201cthe most!\u201d but let\u2019s get more specific.\u00a0Damien Chazelle\u2019s popular musical would need 12 Oscars to beat the record of 11 which was set by Ben-Hur<\/em> back in 1959 and then tied by both\u00a0Lord of the Rings: Return of the King<\/em> (2003) and Titanic<\/em> (1997).<\/p>\n

Technically speaking La La Land<\/em> could<\/em> win 13 Oscars; it has 14 nominations but two of those are in competition with each other in Original Song: Ryan\u2019s big number \u201cCity of Stars\u201d is up against Emma\u2019s showstopper\u00a0\u201cAudition (Fools Who Dream)\u201d. Sadly, neither of those movie stars will perform at the Oscars so their co-star John Legend will do the honors on both of the\u00a0songs.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s break down the categories with predictions and opinions after the jump<\/p>\n

\"lalalnd-exchange\"<\/p>\n

La La Land will be this weekend\u2019s big winner. I\u2019m predicting 9 Oscars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BEST PICTURE:\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Lion<\/em>, and Moonlight<\/em><\/p>\n

Will Win: La La Land<\/em> already made history with its nomination count (tying All About Eve<\/em> and Titanic<\/em> for the most ever with 14) and will continue on into\u00a0history as The official Best Picture of 2016. (Note: the internet loves to refer to the Oscars by the year in which they\u2019re held but this is incorrect. These are officially the 2016 Oscars, they\u2019re just held in 2017.<\/p>\n

Should Win: La La Land<\/em> and Arrival\u00a0<\/em>would both make very worthy winners but Moonlight<\/em> is the most eye-opening and transcendent\u00a0of the nominees and it would make such an unusual but worthy winner. Plus, Oscar owes us for Brokeback Mountain<\/em>\u2018s loss.<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

BEST ACTOR\u00a0<\/strong>Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea<\/em>), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge<\/em>), Ryan Gosling (La La Land<\/em>), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic<\/em>), Denzel Washington (Fences<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Will Win: Casey Affleck won the lion\u2019s share of the precursor prizes and is the broken heart of the popular grief drama Manchester by the Sea\u00a0<\/em>and he remains the safe bet.<\/p>\n

Should Win: \u2026but it\u2019s probably very close with the beloved Denzel Washington doing towering work in Fences<\/em> as a former baseball star who resents his lot in life. Some people think Denzel is too theatrical playing this larger than life man<\/a> but those people are wrong. He\u2019s perfect as this chatterbox\u00a0charisma machine\u00a0\u00a0who sucks all the oxygen out of every room and has drained quite a bit of life from his devoted wife, too. But more on her later.<\/p>\n

Thirst Trap Trivia: Viggo Mortensen is the first male<\/a> actor nominated twice for roles involving full frontal nudity \u2013see also Eastern Promises<\/em> (2007)<\/p>\n

\"Screen\"emmafloats\"<\/p>\n

BEST ACTRESS\u00a0<\/strong>Isabelle Huppert (Elle<\/em>), Ruth Negga (Loving<\/em>), Natalie Portman (Jackie<\/em>), Emma Stone (La La Land<\/em>), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Will Win: Emma Stone will\u00a0float up to the stage like she\u2019s reenacting La La Land<\/em>\u2018s planetarium\u00a0dance number. Actually, take that back. She\u2019s so nerdy awkward at these events she\u2019ll probably trip on the way up.<\/p>\n

Should Win: But the year\u2019s greatest nominated performance is Isabelle Huppert in Elle<\/em>\u2018s bar none. She\u2019s plays an impossible role (to sum up: ice cold video<\/a> game entrepreneur with a worthless son and shameless cougar mom,\u00a0who has been infamous since childhood due to her father\u2019s crime, reacts but doesn\u2019t\u00a0<\/em> to being raped multiple times) and plays it like a Stradivarius at that.<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR\u00a0<\/strong>Mahershala Ali (Moonlight<\/em>), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water<\/em>), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea<\/em>), Dev Patel (Lion<\/em>), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Will Win: Contrary to expectations, I\u2019m predicting that suddenly hot Dev Patel upsets the frontrunner Mahershala Ali to take the statue. Why? Call it residual Slumdog<\/em> love plus that the touching adoption drama Lion<\/em>\u00a0was surging at exactly the right time during voting.<\/p>\n

Should Win: Mahershala Ali arguably doesn\u2019t even give the best performance in Moonlight<\/em> (how do you choose from that amazing ensemble?) but that doesn\u2019t mean he isn\u2019t worthy of the win. He\u2019s terrific as the guilt-ridden drug dealer who\u00a0plays role model to the son of one of his customers. Plus he had a stellar year also appearing in Hidden Figures<\/em> and Luke Cage<\/em> on Netflix<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS\u00a0<\/strong>Viola Davis (Fences<\/em>), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea<\/em>), Naomie Harris (Moonlight<\/em>), Nicole Kidman (Lion<\/em>), and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Will win: The Academy owes Viola Davis and surely they know it. (Meryl Streep\u2019s Iron Lady<\/em>\u00a0mimicry over Viola\u2019s deep soulfulness in The Help<\/em>? I think not!) Plus she\u2019s magnificent as the\u00a0understandably resentful 50s housewife whose vision of her\u00a0life is ripped apart when her husband confesses an affair.<\/p>\n

Should win: But it\u2019s a leading role. I\u2019m so exhausted by actors campaigning in the easier category just to win. It\u2019s not fair to the actual supporting actors. So I would personally vote for either Nicole Kidman (sneakily brilliant in a role that lesser actors would have dutifully done justice to, but nothing more) or Naomie Harris, whose unnerving maximalism as the addict mom in Moonlight<\/em> is not just a perfect style for the movie (since she\u2019s playing a memory) but a fascinating counterpoint to Mahershala Ali\u2019s minimalism.<\/p>\n

\"director-barrydamien\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s Damien Chazelle vs Barry Jenkins for Best Director. Regardless of who wins, we all win because these two fresh voices have great careers ahead of them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BEST DIRECTOR\u00a0<\/strong>Denis Villeneuve (Arrival<\/em>), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge<\/em>), Damien Chazelle (La La Land<\/em>), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea<\/em>), and Barry Jenkins (Moonlight<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Will Win: Damien Chazelle has this wrapped up for his dreamy hit musical. And he probably had it wrapped up by the time we left the freeway in that gleeful opening sequence. His momentum from his\u00a0Whiplash<\/em> breakthrough didn\u2019t hurt. Of note: He will become the youngest winner in this category ever on Sunday night. He turned 32 last month. The current record is Norman Taurog who won at 32 (but closer to 33) way back in the early 1930s for Skippy<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Should Win: Villeneuve and Chazelle are eminently worthy nominees, but I\u2019d vote for Barry Jenkins who infuses what could have been a standard coming-of-age memoir with haunting visual\u00a0boldness and emotional specificity.<\/p>\n

\"zootopia-tigerpoint\"<\/p>\n

How fun were those tigers as go-go boy<\/a> like back up dancers in \u201cZootopia\u201d?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE\u00a0<\/strong>Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, and Zootopia<\/em><\/p>\n

Will Win: Unless Zootopia<\/em>\u2018s behemoth success turns off enough voters and makes them root for an underdog it will emerge triumphant. If there is an upset look to the\u00a0under-rewarded studio Laika. Kubo<\/em> is the fourth film and fourth nominee in this category but they\u2019ve never won. Should Win: What a terrific batch of films! \u00a0There is something to recommend literally all of them. My Life as a Zucchini<\/em>, about a small boy<\/a> who ends up in foster care after his alcoholic mother dies in the opening scene, just now opened in theaters. It\u2019s good and it will remind you of how \u201csafe\u201d American animated films are. The Europeans don\u2019t pull punches in their films about childhood.<\/p>\n

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion<\/em>, and Moonlight<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win:\u00a0Moonlight<\/em> has the edge here \u2014 they need to reward the movie somewhere. Or do we confuse our \u201cneed\u201d with theirs? But an upset is possible as each of these movies has a devoted fanbase. Arrival<\/em> would also make a worthy winner, especially since it\u2019s all about language, but\u00a0attacks its theme in ways that extend beyond the verbal and written.<\/p>\n

\"tumblr_oewutvzjof1vfii50o1_400\"ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY\u00a0<\/strong>Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea<\/em> and 20th Century Women<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: Some people think La La Land<\/em> will take this in a sweep but musicals rarely win for Screenplay. Manchester by the Sea, which people perceive as a writer\u2019s movie, is the safest bet.
\nShould win: But if I was voting I\u2019d have to choose between The Lobster<\/em> and 20th Century Women<\/em>, which are both genius films and were both only nominated in this one category.<\/p>\n

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight,<\/em> and Silence<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: La La Land<\/em>\u2018s bold use of spotlights, saturated color, and realism veering off into fantasy will surely clinch this prize.<\/p>\n

Should win: This is\u00a0a gorgeous batch of movies. What a category! Can we have a five-way tie?<\/p>\n

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE\u00a0<\/strong>Fire at Sea, I\u00a0Am Not Your Negro, Life Animated, OJ: Made in America<\/em>, and 13th<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: OJ Made in America<\/em> has won prize after prize already. But if you ask me if shouldn\u2019t even be eligible for an Oscar. It is NOT a movie. Yes, it played in one theater for a week to qualify but it\u2019s a TV miniseries and, as such, should be relegated to the Emmys. There is a reason why there are different awards shows and that is that they judge different artforms. I\u2019m rooting for a\u00a0surprise upset from the James Baldwin documentary I Am Not Your Negro<\/em> which\u00a0hit movie theaters during voting to great success. And it\u2019s always nice (and rare) to see gay<\/a> heroes honored at the Oscars.<\/p>\n

\"Asghar-Farhadi-directs-Taraneh-Alidusti-in-The-Salesman\"<\/p>\n

Asghar Farhadi (who won the Oscar for the masterpiece \u201cA Separation\u201d) and his actors are not coming to the Oscars this year for \u201cThe Salesman.\u201d Give you one guess why.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM\u00a0<\/strong>A Man Called Ove<\/em> (Sweden), Land of Mine<\/em> (Denmark), Tanna<\/em> (Australia), The Salesman<\/em> (Iran), and Toni Erdmann<\/em> (Germany)<\/p>\n

Will win: This is a difficult call<\/a>. I\u2019d argue that The Salesman<\/em> from the Oscar winning Asghar Farhadi, is the best of this batch but there\u2019s no clear frontrunner. A Man Called Ove<\/em> about a grumpy Swede and an immigrant family he meets was the most successful film of these films in US theatrical release, Toni Erdmann<\/em> was the darling for the critical community, and Land of Mine<\/em> plays out most like a typical Oscar choice (it\u2019s about the aftermath of World War II in Denmark and is moving in a traditional anti-war way). My guess is that President T****\u2019s illegal and immoral Muslim ban which led to Farhadi cancelling his Oscar trip will tip the sentiment to Farhadi but please don\u2019t assume that\u2019s the only reason for the win if it comes to pass. It\u2019s a\u00a0very good film about a marriage on the rocks due to a home break in and the resulting shame and secrecy.<\/p>\n

BEST FILM EDITING\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land<\/em>, and Moonlight<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: La La Land<\/em>\u2018s long takes as well as its great pacing, and musical pizazz will probably deliver it this win.<\/p>\n

Should win: But Moonlight\u2019<\/em>s moody symmetries within its three acts and Arrival<\/em>\u2018s cascading time shifts would also make them worthy\u00a0winners<\/p>\n

\"20160905haborus-reszek-a-hacksaw-ridge\"<\/p>\n

BEST SOUND EDITING\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, Deep Water Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land<\/em>, and Sully<\/em><\/p>\n

Will Win: This category usually goes to an effects heavy movie or an action movie so unless La La Land<\/em> tricks voters into equating sound effects with music, this is probably between Arrival<\/em>\u2018s alien soundscapes and Hacksaw Ridge<\/em>\u2018s wartime carnage. I\u2019m guessing Hacksaw
<\/em>but rooting for Arrival.<\/em><\/p>\n

BEST SOUND MIXING\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story<\/em> and 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi<\/em><\/p>\n

Will Win: La La Land<\/em>\u00a0has the built in musical advantage.<\/p>\n

Should Win: I\u2019ve seen La La Land<\/em> four times and in different\u00a0theaters and circumstances and let\u2019s just say that the sound mix is not always clear \u2014 especially in the great opening number \u201cAnother Day of Sun\u201d when it\u2019s hard to hear the lyrics sung. I\u2019d vote Arrival<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\"tumblr_ojjsyh7XQW1qcldv8o1_500\"<\/p>\n

La La Land\u2019s going to lose somewhere. Will it be production design?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN\u00a0<\/strong>Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail Caesar!, La La Land<\/em> and Passengers<\/em><\/p>\n

Will Win: Unless Oscar voters realize that the Harry Potter universe has never won this prize despite consistent nominations and aims to correct that via Fantastic Beasts<\/em>, this is probably La La Land<\/em>\u2018s.<\/p>\n

Should Win: Arrival<\/em>\u2018s eery minimalism with circular language, stretched egg-like space crafts, and rectangular blocks of alien light make it the easy winner for me.<\/p>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE\u00a0<\/strong>Jackie, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight<\/em>, and Passengers<\/em><\/p>\n

Will Win: La La Land<\/em> has this win sewn up since it\u2019s a musical and the music is beautiful. If you doubt it, try listening to the soundtrack on Spotify. You\u2019ll\u00a0never stop.\u00a0That\u2019s not a threat but a promise. It\u2019s so wonderful.<\/p>\n

\"moana-sailing\"<\/p>\n

Lin-Manuel Miranda\u2019s EGOT will have to wait. La La Land is going to win this one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SONG\u00a0<\/strong>Audition (La La Land<\/em>), Can\u2019t Stop the Feeling (Trolls<\/em>), City of Stars (La La Land<\/em>), Empty Chair (Jim: The James Foley Story<\/em>) and How Far I\u2019ll Go (Moana<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Will Win: La La Land<\/em>\u2018s chief ear worm \u201cCity of Stars\u201d seems likely as a winner though if there\u2019s a split with its other best song \u201cAudition,\u201d perhaps Justin Timberlake will emerge as a surprise victor for his Trolls<\/em> hit?<\/p>\n

Should Win: I\u2019d vote Audition (Fools Who Dream)\u2026 with tears for How Far I\u2019ll Go from Moana<\/em> which is so underrated (as Disney songs go, other than the Frozen<\/em> megahit \u201cLet It Go\u201d).\u00a0Sorry Lin-Manuel Miranda but your EGOT will \u00a0have to wait. It will come.<\/p>\n

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR\u00a0<\/strong>A Man Called Ove, Star Trek Beyond,<\/em> and Suicide Squad<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: Beats me. I\u2019m predicting Star Trek Beyond<\/em> but I\u2019m not confident. Their nominations are mystifying this year.<\/p>\n

\"jackie-costumes-plane\"BEST COSTUME DESIGN\u00a0<\/strong>Allied, Fantastic Beasts, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jacki<\/em>e, and La La Land.<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: Jackie<\/em>\u00a0could well interrupt La La Land<\/em>\u2018s winning streak in this category. When people think of Jackie O they think of fashion. That might help in a tight contest.<\/p>\n

Should win: Jackie<\/em> and Allied<\/em>\u2018s costumes are both stunning<\/a> but I\u2019d vote for La La Land<\/em>, the rare contemporary film that managed a nomination. Contrary to cheap dismissals like \u201ccostume design by the Gap\u201d\u00a0this is actually a thoughtful sophisticated piece of design. I was moved to write a whole piece on it<\/a>.<\/p>\n

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS\u00a0<\/strong>Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, Jungle Book, Kubo<\/em>, and Rogue One<\/em><\/p>\n

Will win: Jungle Book<\/em>\u2018s photorealistic animals will take this Oscar but\u2026<\/p>\n

Should win: Shouldn\u2019t Doctor Strange<\/em>\u2018s kaleidoscope hallucinations or Kubo\u2019s amazing animated wonders emerge as the surprise champ? We\u2019ve seen talking animals before after all.<\/p>\n

\"tumblr_ok1lxxLtwf1svlqpoo1_500\"<\/p>\n

Merci, Isabelle!<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

So, to wrap up: I will never apologize for my Oscar obsession and list-making frenzies<\/a> this time of year. I\u2019m also predicting La La Land<\/em> takes 9 Oscars and only Manchester by the Sea<\/em> manages 2 wins among the scraps. The rest of the films will have to settle for 1 win or the pleasure of being nominated. Now I must jet to prepare for my Oscar party. There\u2019s nothing like Oscar night and it comes but once a year.<\/p>\n

Happy Oscar Weekend!<\/p>\n

The post Hollywood\u2019s High Holy Night is Here: Our Predictions for the 2017 Oscars<\/a> appeared first on Towleroad<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n<\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a>\n<\/div>\n

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Hollywood’s High Holy Night is Here: Our Predictions for the 2017 Oscars<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Should Win: La La Land<\/em>\u2018s music is deserving but I\u2019d be torn between that and Jackie<\/em>\u2018s bizarre and beautiful score from Mica Levy. She also did the genius score to that creepy erotic Scarlett Johansson as a seductive alien movie\u00a0Under the Skin<\/em> a couple<\/a> of years back.<\/p>\n