{"id":50257,"date":"2017-02-14T12:21:24","date_gmt":"2017-02-14T17:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/the-trump-white-house-is-still-figuring-out-its-policy-for-north-korea\/"},"modified":"2017-02-14T12:21:24","modified_gmt":"2017-02-14T17:21:24","slug":"the-trump-white-house-is-still-figuring-out-its-policy-for-north-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gayfriendschat.com\/socialblog\/the-trump-white-house-is-still-figuring-out-its-policy-for-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump White House is Still Figuring out its Policy for North Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Trump White House is Still Figuring out its Policy for North Korea<\/b><\/p>\n

\"North<\/p>\n

North Korea says it conducted a test launch of a Pukguksong-2 guided missile on Feb. 12 and that the test was a \u201ccomplete success.\u201d This undated photo was released by North Korea\u2019s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on Feb. 13, 2017. Credit: KCNA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

It\u2019s pretty clear to most experts what the North Koreans are up to.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

They conducted another missile test over the weekend, because \u2014 eventually \u2014 they want to be able to threaten the US mainland with a nuclear-equipped, long-range missile.<\/p>\n

Pyongyang has a way to go to before it reaches that goal. But Sunday\u2019s test might have marked some progress on a few different fronts.<\/p>\n

The oft-asked question remains: How close is North Korea to being able to place a small-enough nuclear device on a long-range missile, one that can fly over the entire Pacific and reach the US West Coast?<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve seen estimates that they might be ready by 2020 or so,\u201d says Jeffrey Bader, who served on the National Security Council as President Barack Obama\u2019s top adviser on US policy for Asia.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think we really know, but certainly they are moving in that direction. And that\u2019s what the [Trump] administration needs to focus on,\u201d Bader says.<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump mentioned North Korea during his appearance at a joint news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday.<\/p>\n

Trump said he would deal with North Korea \u201cvery strongly.\u201d<\/p>\n

But at this stage, it\u2019s far from clear what Trump means by that.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think there is a policy yet\u201d for North Korea, Bader says.<\/p>\n

And there are several quite understandable reasons why that\u2019s the case.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s pick to run the State Department, Rex Tillerson, was just approved by Congress. And James Mattis, the new defense secretary, has only been in place at the Defense Department for a few weeks.<\/p>\n

In addition, most of the lower-level officials who will support Tillerson and Mattis are not there yet. \u201cAnd they\u2019re important, too,\u201d Bader says.<\/p>\n

He adds that the members of Trump\u2019s national security team also \u201chave a national security adviser who\u2019s under investigation at the moment,\u201d referring to Michael Flynn, who faces allegations of improper contact with Russian officials prior to Trump\u2019s inauguration on Jan. 20.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou don\u2019t devise a North Korea policy sitting around a table one day in response to a [missile] test,\u201d Bader says. \u201cYou need a series of meetings of the National Security Council at the level of the secretaries, and I don\u2019t think they\u2019ve done that yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another key factor in all this is the political situation in South Korea, where President Park Geun-hye is facing impeachment proceedings. Any US policy for North Korea needs to be closely coordinated with Seoul, Bader says.<\/p>\n

But that won\u2019t be possible until the current political scandal is resolved, a process that might not be complete until South Korea holds another national election.<\/p>\n

Trump appears to be taking a more cautious approach toward North Korea than he\u2019s done with at least one other country.<\/p>\n

Iran carried out a medium-range missile test last month, and soon after that, Flynn made an announcement that the Trump administration was officially putting the Islamic Republic \u201con notice.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bader says it\u2019s not clear what Trump\u2019s national security adviser meant by that statement \u201cexcept that it was meant to be scary to the Iranians.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s easier to be more rhetorically forceful with Iran compared to North Korea, Bader says, because North Korea has nuclear weapons. Iran does not.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s first public response to the North Korean missile launch was to express US support for its Japanese allies. That was another way of kicking the can down the road, Bader says.<\/p>\n

But again, there are good reasons why US presidents have been careful about how they deal with North Korea\u2019s nuclear activities.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a near-impossible problem. A succession of administrations have been dealing with this,\u201d Bader says. The key factor that has remained unchanged for decades, he adds, is that the South Korean capital sits well within North Korean artillery range.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny kind of a strong or militarized [US] response towards North Korea comes with great risks for South Korea,\u201d Bader says. What is changing, however, is the fact that the North is getting closer to its goal of developing longer-range nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Bader says that puts more pressure on the Trump team, which will \u201chave to come up with some new ideas on a problem that hasn\u2019t seen many new ideas for 20 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

This article first appeared on PRI The World<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The post The Trump White House is Still Figuring out its Policy for North Korea<\/a> appeared first on Towleroad<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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The Trump White House is Still Figuring out its Policy for North Korea<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n