Who Will Win at This Year’s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions

To describe this 91st Oscar season as “cataclysmic” might sound hyperbolic, but if you’ve been paying attention you’ll forgive the D-R-A-M-A in that adjective. The year has been chalk full of embarrassing Academy missteps like not properly vetting Kevin Hart as their announced host, and the dumb “popular movie” category they floated and were ridiculed for.

All year long the current leadership of the Academy has shown a distressing lack of respect for Hollywood artists and a complete lack of understanding about why people even watch the Oscars in the first place (Hint: it isn’t for the late night TV comic hosts, who people can watch any night of the week if they want: It’s for the movies, the celebrity glamour, the tradition, and the funny, endearing, or teary speeches). All of their idiotic announcements (no songs other than Lady Gaga’s to be performed, not all categories to be broadcast live, last year’s acting winners not invited to present) have been walked back after public disgust or industry outrage.

In short we’re going into Oscar night with the assumption that the current leaders literally have no idea what they’re doing…

The damage that the Oscars have done to their own brand this year is substantial but we won’t know if this is ‘meteor, meet dinosaurs!’ serious until the 91st Annual Academy Awards play out on Sunday night on ABC. Will it be utter chaos or just like any other ceremony…?

What we do know at this writing!
We have the list of presenters which includes the usual assortment of current stars, odd choices, and, weirdly, only one classic movie presence (Barbra Streisand). Off-movie celebrities like Serena Williams and Chef Jose Andres will be introducing each Best Picture nominee, and all the Original Songs will be performed by their original performers or writers with the exception of Black Panther’s “All the Stars” (no announcement on who is singing it yet) and “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns which will be sung by Bette Midler. Queen will also perform, presumably a medley of their hits, with Adam Lambert in tow. The show will go hostless — the delightful rumor that Whoopi Goldberg will be the surprise host has been debunked by the ladies of The View.

Who might win? We’ll take the categories in the order they were presented at the last ceremony just to have an order though they always switch up the order from year to year. Fair warning: this year is more confusing than usual so take this all with a grain of salt. Ready?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Mahershala Ali has cleaned up all season for his leading role (Category Fraud alert!) in Green Book but is he really all that convincing as a gay man? We say no, though your mileage may vary. Plus he won just two years ago for a better performance (Moonlight) so why is this happening? Why?!
Should Win: Richard E Grant wipes the floor with the Supporting Actor competition with this fully developed alcoholic streetwise character. “Jack Hock, big cock” is his introduction and he never stops being hilarious, touching, and unpredictable throughout a great queer film Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: People love Christian Bale’s chameleonic weight gains and losses so his transformation into Dick Cheney should do the trick. Though with makeup effects this good — they made his neck larger and you’d never know he wasn’t balding — one wonders why Bale puts himself through so much harmful yo-yoing in his physique for these parts he takes.
Should Win: The hard-to-describe Swedish movie Border (well worth watching) which has some of the best makeup effects you’ll ever see… and which you won’t be able to unsee, fair warning.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win/Should Win: A total nail-biter. It’s either going to be Sandy Powell’s incredible work on the palace tragicomedy The Favourite, mixing period silhouettes with ultra modern textiles and techniques and an amazingly rangy color palette (considering the heavy use of blacks and whites) or Ruth E Carter’s futuristic creative work on Black Panther imagining a technologically advanced hidden African society. We’re rooting for Black Panther primarily because Carter has never won despite incredible work and the very cool Powell (imagine a costume designing version of Tilda Swinton) already has three Oscars, famously starting her third winning speech 9 years ago with a flippant “I already have two of these.”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: We suspect this is a tight race between two blockbuster docs, the mountain climbing Free Solo and the biography RBG. Given RBG’s iconic nature and the current political resistance climate we think RBG has the edge to win.
Should Win: Abstain as we haven’t yet seen all five.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Going out on a limb here to say that this is where First Man fans rally for that underappreciated historical drama about the moon landing. But this could just as easily go to the any of the other nominees: Roma, Black Panther, A Quiet Place, or Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: First Man

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody probably has this one sewn up, primarily for providing the joy of that soundwall of Queen hits. Queen is a great band but that doesn’t mean we should be throwing statues at a bad movie about them!
Should Win: Roma and First Man both have incredible soundscapes and if they want to honor a music drama for the win, A Star is Born‘s mix is a lot more challenging and compelling than reliving Queen’s greatest hits collection.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: The Favourite. Oscar voters love royalty porn and palaces, so why not? The film is a work of art. Those tapestries alone!
Should Win: The Favourite but we wouldn’t be mad if Roma‘s immersive take on Mexico City in 1970 or Black Panther‘s imaginative Wakanda took it, instead.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Mexico’s Roma, hands down, though Poland’s Cold War would have easily won in a non Netflix/Roma dominant year.
Should Win: Japan’s Shoplifters. Rent it. You’ll weep. But really this is a great category this year. Lebanon’s Capernaum is also riveting

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Tough call as there hasn’t been a clear frontrunner as there too often is in each and every acting race. It’s either going to be Regina King’s warmth and fortitude as a distraught mother in If Beale Street Could Talk or Rachel Weisz’s lacerating quips and heartbreak in The Favourite.
Should Win: We’re rooting for Regina since Rachel has a leading role (Category Fraud alert!) but that said, Rachel is fan-tas-tic in The Favourite

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will Win: Weekends for a wild guess, though Pixar’s Bao is the most widely seen.
Should Win: Abstain. Haven’t yet seen them all.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should Win: Isle of Dogs and Spider-Verse are both grand imaginative entertainments.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: First Man. Lately the winner in this category has been the film with the lowest gross (in a category that regularly nominated blockbusters). Funny, right? And that moon landing is just sublime filmmaking.
Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War. But for whatever reason superhero movies almost never win. Spider-Man 2 (2004) is literally the only superhero film that’s ever won this Oscar (competitively speaking – Superman got a special Oscar in 1978)

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: This category is sometimes an Oscar bellwether as to what will win Best Picture. If it goes to Green Book, expect that to take the prize. If it goes to Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice, there may be other factors at work like the challenge of turning a troubled production into a blockbuster or “Most” Editing respectively. We’re guessing Vice but it’ll be close either way.
Should Win: Either of the two that look like they have no shot at it: the confrontational BlacKkKlansman with it crosscut conversations with classic cinema, or The Favourite, with its merciless comic precision and its soulful and strange dissolves.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: We have a suspicion that Period. End of Sentence, currently streaming on Netflix, which is about an upstart factory producing tampons for women in rural India might take it. It’s the rare non-depressing Doc short nominee.
Should Win: …but we’re rooting for End Game, also streaming on Netflix. This emotionally charged short is about end-of-life care and new ways of looking at and making peace with death. It’s from two-time Oscar winning gay documentarian Rob Epstein (of The Times of Harvey Milk, Common Threads: Stories from the Quilt, and The Celluloid Closet fame)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: We’re guessing either Detainment or Skin
Should Win: Marguerite, the lone live-action short nominee this year that is not a traumatically violent story involving little boys (weird trend alert!). It’s a drama about an aging woman who realizes her nurse is a lesbian, which then prompts her to remember her own lost love.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman because it’s a chance to finally give Spike Lee a competitive Oscar and the film and screenplay are damn good, too.
Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me? a screenplay from the great writer Nicole Holofcener (who usually directs her own screenplays – but not this time), and Tony winner Jeff Whitty (of Avenue Q fame).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Another tough call. If Green Book wins this, we expect it to take Best Picture, too. And that’s what we’re currently thinking.
Should Win: The Favourite

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Cold War, that other gloriously shot black & white foreign movie in the mix this year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Black Panther
Should Win: It’s a strong category this year since Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk, and BlacKkKlansman would also make fine winners. In fact both Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman already won Grammys (in separate categories) recently.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will / Should Win: If Lady Gaga doesn’t take this for “Shallow” there will be (gay) riots. You may recall that I am obsessed with this movie and remain unashamedly in its corner. Early prediction: the performance of “Shallow” will be the highlight of the ceremony, unless someone like Glenn Close gives a pitch perfect quotable speech.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón for his personal and artistic triumph, Roma.
Should Win: Tough call but we’d probably vote for Spike Lee and BlacKkKlansman, since Cuarón already has a directing Oscar and Lee famously doesn’t. Yorgos Lanthimos, the iconoclastic director behind The Favourite (and The Lobster and Dogtooth and Killing of a Sacred Deer) would also be a sound choice.

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Rami Malek has this wrapped up. During your Oscar party you should have your guests lipsync to Queen hits during commercial break. Whoever does the best job should get a toy Oscar as a party favor because apparently spirited lipsynching is enough to win an Oscar now? [sigh]
Should Win: Bradley Cooper hands down. That his raw soulful lived in performance as a troubled rock star falling in love isn’t picking up trophies is bewildering. Plus he does his own singing and songwriting. Rami Malek could never.

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win/Should Win: Glenn Close in The Wife. Yes, there’s a chance that Olivia Colman upsets Close’s long-denied coronation with her hilarious and moving work as Queen Anne in The Favourite but we think Hollywood will realize it’s time to honor Close’s career with the trophy she’s been long denied. This is her seventh nomination and it’s not a pity nomination: she’s spectacular in the movie and I’m proud to have been quoted on one of the earliest posters, saying so. She’s now the most nominated actress of all time to have never won. At least until Sunday.

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Who knows? Our crystal balls are so cloudy. The precursor awards have been as tumultuous as the Academy’s constant walked back press releases about their show. Roma won the Directors Guild Award, Black Panther took the Screen Actors Guild Award, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book owned the Globes, Roma nabbed the Critics Choice, Green Book won the Producers Guild Award, and then Roma and The Favourite cleaned up at BAFTA. Plus the Oscars use a “preferential” ballot for Best Picture (which they don’t use on the other categories) which means you can win the top prize even if you didn’t get the most #1 votes (provided you have a lot of #2 and #3 votes), as long as another film doesn’t win outright with too many #1 votes on the first count to have to go down the list — look, it’s complicated! (They basically have to rank the nominees.)

In the end we think it’s going to either Roma or Green Book, which both appear to be beloved in Hollywood and will surely get a lot of #1 through #3 votes, but Black Panther wouldn’t be surprising if no film dominates on first count because nobody hates Black Panther. Hesistant prediction: Green Book.
Should Win: The Favourite.

HOW DUMB WILL THESE PREDICTIONS LOOK ON SUNDAY NIGHT?
We’ve predicted a ‘spread the wealth’ kind of night with all the Best Picture nominees winning at least one Oscar like so: Roma and Green Book (3 each), Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, and Black Panther (2 each), and The Favourite, A Star is Born, and BlacKkKlansman (1 each). The wild cards are definitely Roma and The Favourite. They each have ten nominations and it’s easy to see scenarios wherein they pick up a lot more than we’ve predicted here, maybe as high as 5 Oscars each!

HAPPY OSCAR WATCHING, ALL!

The post Who Will Win at This Year’s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions appeared first on Towleroad Gay News.

Who Will Win at This Year’s Oscars? A Preview and Predictions

The GLAAD Wrap: Outfest Fusion Film Festival, ‘Rocketman’ and ‘My Days of Mercy’ trailers, new Lena Waithe Showtime dramedy, and more!

www.glaad.org/blog/glaad-wrap-outfest-fusion-film-festival-rocketman-and-my-days-mercy-trailers-new-lena-waithe

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CA Federal Judge Rules Twin Son Of Gay Married Couple Has Been An American Citizen Since Birth

A federal judge in California has ruled on a highly contentious immigration case that sets a new precedent and will elicit a sigh of relief for gay married couples everywhere.

At issue was the fact that although both twins were born to the same surrogate, because sperm from each of the men was used to inseminate each egg separately, then the one child whose father is Israeli, was shockingly not considered an American citizen.

“The government had only granted citizenship to Aiden, who DNA tests showed was the biological son of Andrew, a U.S. citizen, said NBC News. While, “Ethan was conceived from the sperm of Elad Dvash-Banks, an Israeli citizen.”

“The State Department was wrong to deny citizenship to 2-year-old Ethan Dvash-Banks because U.S. law does not require a child to show a biological relationship with their parents if their parents were married at the time of their birth, District Judge John F. Walter found,” according to the AP.

The post CA Federal Judge Rules Twin Son Of Gay Married Couple Has Been An American Citizen Since Birth appeared first on Towleroad Gay News.

CA Federal Judge Rules Twin Son Of Gay Married Couple Has Been An American Citizen Since Birth: WATCH

#AM_Equality Tipsheet: February 22, 2019

THE CRUELTY CONTINUES — TEXAS CIVIL RIGHTS PROJECT REVEALS TRUMP-PENCE ADMIN STILL SEPARATING FAMILIES  AT THE BORDER:

Since the Trump Administration began separating families systematically at the border, the American people have been kept in the dark. This new report from @TXCivilRights reveals that families are STILL being separated. #FamiliesBelongTogether t.co/lfdSqLszGG pic.twitter.com/KAHFXQ9BLT

— Families Belong Together (@fams2gether) February 21, 2019

UTAH LAWMAKERS INTRODUCE LEGISLATION TO PROTECT YOUTH FROM “CONVERSION THERAPY”: “No child should be put through the dangerous, debunked and inhumane practice of conversion therapy,” said HRC National Field Director Marty Rouse. “We commend Rep. Craig Hall and Sen. Dan McCay for introducing this crucial legislation that will ensure that Utah is safe and affirming to all LGBTQ youth, and urge lawmakers in both chambers to do the same and stand up for Utah’s kids.” More from HRC.

FEEL GOOD FRIDAY — FEDERAL JUDGE DETERMINES A TWIN SON OF BINATIONAL SAME-SEX COUPLE IS U.S. CITIZEN: The child was initially denied U.S. citizenship because he does not share a blood relationship with his American father. However, Los Angeles federal Judge John F. Walter determined that U.S. law does not require a child to show a biological relationship with both of their parents if their parents were married at the time of their birth — and requested the State Department propose a judgement consistent with this determination by the end of the month. More from Los Angeles Times.

JUDY SHEPARD — “LET’S GET THIS EQUALITY ACT DONE AND MOVE FORWARD AS A UNITED NATION”: Her remarks about the federal legislation that would provide non-discrimination protections based on sexual orientation and gender identity came during HRC Foundation’s Time To THRIVE conference last weekend.

“Pay attention. Let’s get this Equality Act done, and move forward as a united nation.” – @WyoJudyShepard, at HRC Foundation’s #TimetoTHRIVE conference, on why we need the Equality Act, which would add LGBTQ protections to current federal civil rights law. pic.twitter.com/xgAQ8mRO7k

— Human Rights Campaign (@HRC) February 21, 2019

WASH POST — “WILL THE NATION’S THIRD-LARGEST CHURCH SPLIT UP OVER LGBT DEBATE?”: Leaders of the 12 million-member United Methodist Church will convene Saturday in St. Louis to decide critical issues related to the LGBTQ faithful — including whether to continue to bar clergy from performing same-sex marriages, and LGBTQ people from ordination. More from Julie Zauzmer (@JulieZauzmer) and Sarah Pulliam Bailey (@spulliam) in the Washington Post.

NEW VICE DOCUMENTARY SHOWS JOURNEY OF TRANS ASYLUM SEEKERS TO AMERICA: It also highlights resources and community groups helping transgender asylum seekers once they reach the U.S.

PULSE SURVIVOR BRANDON WOLF ACCEPTS POSITION AT EQUALITY FLORIDA: Wolf (@bjoewolf) will serve as the Central Florida development officer and the statewide media relations manager. More from Watermark Online.

Congratulations, Brandon!

We can’t wait to work with you and @equalityfl to help move #EqualityForward in the Sunshine State. t.co/MD1k8orPV6

— Human Rights Campaign (@HRC) February 21, 2019

HRC TO HONOR LGBTQ ADVOCATE YEARDLEY SMITH AT HRC LOS ANGELES DINNER: She’ll receive the HRC National Leadership Award on March 30 at the JW Marriott L.A. LIVE, where more than 1,000 of HRC’s most active members and supporters in the greater Los Angeles area will gather to raise crucial funds in the fight for LGBTQ equality. More from HRC.

HARROWING NEW DATA REVEALS THAT ONE IN FOUR 12-TO-14 YEAR OLDS WHO DIE BY SUICIDE ARE LGBTQ: More from Reuters.

GLOBAL EQUALITY NEWS

HIGH COURT OF KENYA DELAYS DECISION ON COLONIAL-ERA LAW CRIMINALIZING CONSENSUAL SAME-SEX SEXUAL RELATIONS: Justice John Mativo said the judgement will now be issued in late May. HRC continues to support advocates on-the-ground like Global Innovator Njeri Gateru who are working to overturn this anti-LGBTQ law. More from The Guardian.

READING RAINBOW – Bookmark now to read on your lunch break!

This #BlackHistoryMonth, @HRC recognizes the work LGBTQ people are doing in the U.S. and around the globe to bring visibility to Black, Afro-Caribbean and African LGBTQ people through Pride. t.co/TBQyQEyixU

— Human Rights Campaign (@HRC) February 21, 2019

HRC speaks to Melba Mathurin, senior manager of HRC Foundation’s Welcoming Schools program, who helped organize the first-ever Virgin Islands Pride
Have news? Send us your news and tips at [email protected]. Click here to subscribe to #AM_Equality and follow @HRC for all the latest news. Thanks for reading!

www.hrc.org/blog/am-equality-tipsheet-february-22-2019?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss-feed

Jussie Smollett Stands by Innocence in Statement, Apology on ‘Empire’ Set: ‘I Swear to God, I Did Not Do This’ — REPORT

Following his release on $100,000 bond yesterday, actor Jussie Smollett went directly to Chicago’s Cinespace Studio where he shot a scene and spoke to the cast and crew of Empire, according to reports,

TMZ reports: ‘We’re told he addressed everyone on set, saying …”I’m sorry I’ve put you all through this and not answered any calls. I wanted to say I’m sorry and, you know me, I would never do this to any of you, you are my family. I swear to God, I did not do this.”’

CNN spoke to someone who attended the set meeting: “The person at the meeting said they were shocked and dismayed that Smollett stuck to his story of innocence. For the most part, the source said, Smollett paraphrased what was in the statement that his attorney put out that afternoon, blaming the legal system and the media for his woes. 20th Century Fox Television executive VP of corporate communications and publicity, Chris Alexander, confirmed that Smollett was on set filming on Thursday.”

Documents obtained by TMZ and filed by prosecutors in Smollett’s bond hearing outline a detailed plot including texts between the Empire actor and the two brothers he engaged to carry it out.

A statement sent out late Thursday on behalf of Smollett read: “Today we witnessed an organized law enforcement spectacle that has no place in the American legal system. The presumption of innocence, a bedrock in the search for justice, was trampled upon at the expense of Mr. Smollett and notably, on the eve of a Mayoral election. Mr. Smollett is a young man of impeccable character and integrity who fiercely and solemnly maintains his innocence and feels betrayed by a system that apparently wants to skip due process and proceed directly to sentencing.”

Follow all our coverage of the Jussie Smollett case HERE.

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Jussie Smollett Stands by Innocence in Statement, Apology on ‘Empire’ Set: ‘I Swear to God, I Did Not Do This’ — REPORT

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The Lesbian-Themed Film Competing for an Oscar on Sunday

Academy Award-nominated short film Marguerite brings lost love to light. 

www.advocate.com/film/2019/2/22/lesbian-themed-film-competing-oscar-sunday

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